Average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2027
Before 2027 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 202.
Price history
15¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If any span of 4 consecutive calendar days after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 contains at least 2 days where the Station Average at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston (IAH) is below 20°F, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2027
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Before 2029 61¢
Range
9¢-61¢
Family volume
$2
Identifier
KXTXURI-28DEC31-27JAN01
Sep 13, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$13
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 202
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$2
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any span of 4 consecutive calendar days after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 contains at least 2 days where the Station Average at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston (IAH) is below 20°F, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTXURI-28DEC31-27JAN01
Event family
Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 202.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before 2029 61¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.