Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract measures the likelihood that Dallas-Fort Worth or Houston airports will experience at least 2 days with average minimum temperatures below 20°F within a consecutive 4-day window before the end of 2026—approximately 5 months away. The 4% probability reflects the rarity of such extreme cold in South Texas during late summer through fall. The market is pricing in that sustained sub-20°F conditions are unlikely during this timeframe, particularly given historical patterns where freezes typically occur in December or January. The main upside catalyst would be an unusually early onset of Arctic air masses, while normal seasonal warming through autumn would reinforce the low probability. Contract resolution depends entirely on verified minimum temperature readings from official weather stations serving both metros.

• ›Historical freeze frequency: sub-20°F minimums at DFW/IAH occur fewer than 2-3 times annually, almost entirely December-February
• ›Seasonal timing: ~68% of the remaining contract period (August-November) typically experiences above-freezing minimum temperatures in Texas
• ›Arctic air pattern persistence: achieving sub-20°F temperatures on 2 of any 4 consecutive days requires sustained Arctic outbreak, which typically lasts 3-5 days when it occurs
• ›Current atmospheric setup: no climate models or seasonal forecasts project anomalous early-winter conditions for autumn 2026
• ›Historical base rate: the probability of any randomly-selected 4-day window in an 8-month period hitting this threshold is empirically very low based on 30+ years of temperature records

What moved the line

• Sep 10Before 2028↓3pp38→35¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds