Will the Department of Justice (DOJ) release Data Set 13 (pursuant to the Epstein Files Transparency Act) before Sep 1, 2026?

The market is pricing in only a 17% probability of DOJ Data Set 13 release by September 2026, down from 21¢ a week ago, suggesting declining market confidence in near-term disclosure despite 135 days remaining. The extreme 1,320.8% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the sharp price decline and thin liquidity ($103 daily volume against $5.8k open interest), creating a classic high-risk/high-reward setup where a modest positive development could trigger significant repricing. The 5¢ spread and moderate cliff risk index (5/10) indicate this is a speculative position rather than a consensus trade, with the neutral regime score suggesting no clear directional momentum.

Resolution rules

If the Department of Justice (DOJ) has released Data Set 13 (pursuant to the Epstein Files Transparency Act) to the public before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade