Will the Department of Justice (DOJ) release Data Set 13 (pursuant to the Epstein Files Transparency Act) before Jan 1, 2027?

The market has experienced significant downward price movement, dropping from 33¢ to 21¢ over seven days, suggesting deteriorating confidence in DOJ release before the January 2027 deadline. The 534.4% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the extreme risk-reward asymmetry at these depressed odds, though minimal 24-hour volume of just $4 against $4,701 open interest indicates low liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions. With 257 days remaining and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, traders appear to be pricing in substantial regulatory or bureaucratic delays, though the wide yield spread warrants caution given thin trading activity.

Resolution rules

If the Department of Justice (DOJ) has released Data Set 13 (pursuant to the Epstein Files Transparency Act) to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade