SimpleFunctions

EUR/USD price above 1.17999 at Jun 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

1.18000 or above is priced at 90¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 24¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.1.

Price history

90¢ current

+40¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
Jun 16, 2026Jun 22, 2026

Contract brief

If the open price of the Euro/Dollar for June 30, 2026 is above 1.17999 at 5 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

1.18000 or above

Rank

#3 of 6

Leader

1.15000 or above 31¢

Range

2¢-31¢

Family volume

$9

Identifier

KXEURUSDW-26JUN3017-T1.17999

Jun 23, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 21m ago

Implied probability

90¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 21m ago

Bid

Ask

30¢

Spread

24¢

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#3 of 6

6 outcomes · Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.1

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$9

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 30¢

Kalshi
24¢ spread
BidSize
100¢798
6¢5
AskSize
30¢2
36¢29
37¢71
43¢101
79¢82

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the open price of the Euro/Dollar for June 30, 2026 is above 1.17999 at 5 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

KXEURUSDW-26JUN3017-T1.17999

SF Signal
SF Index
73842.11
Regime
taker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

73842.1%

IY (No)

300.9%

Adj IY

73842%

CRI

16

RV

9407%

VR

0.70

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

73842.1%
300.9%
Adj IY
73842%
16
RV
9407%
VR
0.70
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
-0.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.