Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.14999 at Jun 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader sits at 31% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1.15000 or above
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
1.16000 or above
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$30
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
8 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.1
Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.19999 at Jun 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: 1.20000 or above
KXEURUSDW-26JUN3017-T1.19999
Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.14999 at Jun 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: 1.15000 or above
KXEURUSDW-26JUN3017-T1.14999
Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.18999 at Jun 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: 1.19000 or above
KXEURUSDW-26JUN3017-T1.18999
Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.17999 at Jun 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: 1.18000 or above
KXEURUSDW-26JUN3017-T1.17999
Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.15999 at Jun 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: 1.16000 or above
KXEURUSDW-26JUN3017-T1.15999
Analysis
This market estimates a 49% probability that EUR/USD will close above 1.15 on June 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT, reflecting near-even odds for a modest euro strength scenario over the next 16 days. The probability hinges on the divergence between U.S. and eurozone monetary policy: if the Federal Reserve signals further rate cuts or economic weakness emerges in U.S. data, the euro tends to appreciate. Conversely, if the ECB signals hawkish policy or eurozone growth disappoints, downward pressure on EUR/USD intensifies. The most immediate catalyst is the Federal Reserve's June 18 meeting and policy decision, which could shift market expectations about near-term rate trajectories. Secondary drivers include eurozone inflation data and any geopolitical risk shifts affecting safe-haven flows into the dollar.
- ›Federal Reserve policy announcement on June 18, 2026—forward guidance on interest rates directly influences USD demand and EUR/USD direction
- ›Relative interest rate differentials between the Fed funds rate and ECB deposit rate—wider spreads typically support USD strength and lower EUR/USD levels
- ›Upcoming U.S. economic data (PCE inflation, employment, GDP) between now and June 30—weakness could reduce Fed rate support and push EUR/USD higher
- ›ECB communication and inflation expectations in the eurozone—hawkish signals or sticky inflation could strengthen the euro above 1.15
- ›Current level sits exactly at 1.15, placing the breakeven point near technical support/resistance, meaning small data surprises could trigger outsized moves in either direction
What moved the line
- Jun 161.19000 or above↓89pp90→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 161.20000 or above↓69pp70→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 181.15000 or above↓54pp58→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 181.18000 or above↓43pp47→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 171.20000 or above↑35pp1→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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