What is the current probability for "Will the Fed cut rates 4 times?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Fed cut rates 4 times?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3444.5% and 6.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Fed cut rates 4 times?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Fed cut rates 4 times?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Fed cut rates 4 times?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario with a 5% probability, yet the implied yield of 4,552.7% on the Yes side reflects the outsized payoff potential for a four-rate-cut cycle within the 2026 calendar year.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 4/4¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $225.3·OI $171,581.61·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T4

7-day price22 snapshots · 7 regime

4¢4¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario with a 5% probability, yet the implied yield of 4,552.7% on the Yes side reflects the outsized payoff potential for a four-rate-cut cycle within the 2026 calendar year. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $171,545 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a relatively illiquid niche contract where prices may not reflect true consensus, particularly given the neutral regime score and the 259 days to expiration providing ample time for Fed policy shifts. The cliff risk index of 32 indicates moderate binary risk, and with the market stalled at 3¢ over the past week, current pricing appears to be a consensus floor rather than an active trading level.

Resolution rules

If the Fed cuts 4 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3444.5%

IY (No) 6.0%

Adj IY 1722%

CRI 24

EE 3.000

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3444.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1722%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	3.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.469

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:32:07 PM

SF edge 3.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +3¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →