Cuts · KXRATECUT-26DEC31
Cuts is priced at 26¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
26¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Cuts
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$15K
Identifier
KXRATECUT-26DEC31
Jun 24, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$16K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$15K
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRATECUT-26DEC31
Event family
KXRATECUT-26DEC31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$15K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Cuts 23¢
Current share
100%
Cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUT-26DEC31
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.577
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 26% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.