Cut 25bps · Will the Federal Reserve
Cut 25bps is priced at 53¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 63¢ ask, 55¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will the Federal Reserve.
Price history
53¢ current
+39¢Contract brief
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on June 09, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Cut 25bps
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Fed maintains rate 36¢
Range
1¢-36¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFEDDECISION-27JUN-C25
May 28, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
63¢
Spread
55¢
Reported volume
$60
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the Federal Reserve
Closes
Jun 9, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 63¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on June 09, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 9, 2027
Identifier
KXFEDDECISION-27JUN-C25
Event family
Will the Federal Reserve.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Fed maintains rate 36¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Federal Reserve Interest Rates 2026: What Inflation Prediction Markets Are Really Pricing In
Deep‑dive on Federal Reserve interest rates in 2026: SEP projections, inflation and unemployment paths, QT endgame, global central bank context, and what prediction markets are pricing for Fed cuts, inflation, and recession—plus actionable trading setups.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 53% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.