Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 49¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
49¢ current
−22¢Contract brief
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$669K
Identifier
KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0
Sep 21, 2026, 8:13 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
49¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$74K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Oct 28, 2026
Family volume
$669K
Orderbook snapshot
49 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 28, 2026
Identifier
KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$669K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting 49¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.485
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.