Fed maintains rate · Will the Federal Reserve
Fed maintains rate is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 29¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will the Federal Reserve.
Price history
21¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Fed maintains rate
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Hike >25bps 60¢
Range
2¢-60¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H0
Jul 13, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
29¢
Reported volume
$241
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the Federal Reserve
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
Identifier
KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H0
Event family
Will the Federal Reserve.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Hike >25bps 60¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.