Hike 25bps · Will the Federal Reserve
Hike 25bps is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 25¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will the Federal Reserve.
Price history
8¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Hike 25bps
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Fed maintains rate 61¢
Range
1¢-61¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H25
Sep 16, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
25¢
24h volume
$20
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the Federal Reserve
Closes
Apr 28, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 30¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on April 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Apr 28, 2027
Identifier
KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H25
Event family
Will the Federal Reserve.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Fed maintains rate 61¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.