Winning the Final · Will the furthest stage advanced to by any African nation
Winning the Final is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 16¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 7 inside Will the furthest stage advanced to by any African nation.
Price history
2¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the furthest stage advanced to by any team that competes in Africa (CAF) qualification is winning the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Winning the Final
Rank
#5 of 7
Leader
Round of 16 35¢
Range
1¢-35¢
Family volume
$108
Identifier
KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-FW
Jun 23, 2026, 7:19 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
16¢
Reported volume
$715
Family rank
#5 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the furthest stage advanced to by any African nation
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
Family volume
$108
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 17¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the furthest stage advanced to by any team that competes in Africa (CAF) qualification is winning the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-FW
Event family
Will the furthest stage advanced to by any African nation.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$108
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Round of 16 35¢
Current share
0%
Round of 16
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-R16
Quarterfinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-QF
Round of 32
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-R32
Semifinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-SF
Group Stage
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-GS
Winning the Final
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-FW
Losing the Final
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-FL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.