Round of 32 · Will the furthest stage advanced to by any African nation
Round of 32 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 13¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside Will the furthest stage advanced to by any African nation.
Price history
15¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If the furthest stage advanced to by any team that competes in Africa (CAF) qualification is the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Round of 32
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
Round of 16 40¢
Range
1¢-40¢
Family volume
$763
Identifier
KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-R32
Jun 22, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
13¢
24h volume
$72
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the furthest stage advanced to by any African nation
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
Family volume
$763
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the furthest stage advanced to by any team that competes in Africa (CAF) qualification is the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-R32
Event family
Will the furthest stage advanced to by any African nation.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$763
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Round of 16 40¢
Current share
9%
Round of 16
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-R16
Quarterfinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-QF
Round of 32
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-R32
Semifinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-SF
Group Stage
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-GS
Losing the Final
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-FL
Winning the Final
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26AFR-FW
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.