Winning the Final · Will the furthest stage advanced to by any South America nation
Winning the Final is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 19¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 7 inside Will the furthest stage advanced to by any South America nation.
Price history
20¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the furthest stage advanced to by any team that competes in South America (CONMEBOL) qualification is winning the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Winning the Final
Rank
#2 of 7
Leader
Semifinals 30¢
Range
1¢-30¢
Family volume
$35
Identifier
KXWCSTAGE-26SA-FW
Jun 22, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
19¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the furthest stage advanced to by any South America nation
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
Family volume
$35
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the furthest stage advanced to by any team that competes in South America (CONMEBOL) qualification is winning the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSTAGE-26SA-FW
Event family
Will the furthest stage advanced to by any South America nation.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$35
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Semifinals 30¢
Current share
0%
Semifinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-SF
Winning the Final
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-FW
Quarterfinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-QF
Group Stage
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-GS
Round of 16
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-R16
Losing the Final
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-FL
Round of 32
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-R32
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.