Round of 16 · Will the furthest stage advanced to by any South America nation
Round of 16 is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Will the furthest stage advanced to by any South America nation.
Price history
9¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the furthest stage advanced to by any team that competes in South America (CONMEBOL) qualification is the Round of 16 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Round of 16
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
Semifinals 26¢
Range
1¢-26¢
Family volume
$258
Identifier
KXWCSTAGE-26SA-R16
Jun 26, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the furthest stage advanced to by any South America nation
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
Family volume
$258
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the furthest stage advanced to by any team that competes in South America (CONMEBOL) qualification is the Round of 16 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 26, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSTAGE-26SA-R16
Event family
Will the furthest stage advanced to by any South America nation.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$258
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Semifinals 26¢
Current share
0%
Semifinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-SF
Winning the Final
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-FW
Round of 16
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-R16
Quarterfinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-QF
Losing the Final
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-FL
Round of 32
kalshi · KXWCSTAGE-26SA-R32
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.