SimpleFunctions

In July 2026 · KXFOMCGUIDE-26

In July 2026 is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

11¢ current

+1¢
0¢10¢
Jun 22, 2026Jul 23, 2026

Contract brief

If the inclusion of forward-looking rate guidance in the July 2026 FOMC statement is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jul 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

In July 2026

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$695

Identifier

KXFOMCGUIDE-26-FWD

Jul 23, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 28m ago

Implied probability

11¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 23, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 28m ago

Bid

Ask

10¢

Spread

24h volume

$695

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jul 29, 2026

Family volume

$695

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 10¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
100¢50
7¢1
6¢15
5¢500
AskSize
10¢14
11¢165
12¢500
21¢67
30¢1

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the inclusion of forward-looking rate guidance in the July 2026 FOMC statement is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jul 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 29, 2026

Identifier

KXFOMCGUIDE-26-FWD

SF Signal
SF Index
43751.59
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXFOMCGUIDE-26.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$695

Outcomes

1

Highest price

In July 2026 7¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

87503.2%
356.5%
Adj IY
43752%
16

Odds pages

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Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.