Lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT
Above $3M is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 63¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 29¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 7 inside Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $.
Price history
96¢ current
+93¢Contract brief
If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above $3M during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $3M
Rank
#2 of 7
Leader
Above $4M 83¢
Range
6¢-83¢
Family volume
$248
Identifier
KXART-AAR26-3000000
Jun 25, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
63¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
29¢
24h volume
$143
Family rank
#2 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $
Closes
Jul 2, 2026
Family volume
$248
Orderbook snapshot
63 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above $3M during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 2, 2026
Identifier
KXART-AAR26-3000000
Event family
Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$248
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above $4M 83¢
Current share
58%
Above $4M
kalshi · KXART-AAR26-4000000
Above $3M
kalshi · KXART-AAR26-3000000
Above $5M
kalshi · KXART-AAR26-5000000
Above $6M
kalshi · KXART-AAR26-6000000
Above $7M
kalshi · KXART-AAR26-7000000
Above $8M
kalshi · KXART-AAR26-8000000
Above $9M
kalshi · KXART-AAR26-9000000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.