Margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 1st District House election at least 2 percentage points
Johnson, 2+ pts is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 1st District House election be at least.
Price history
21¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 1st District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Johnson, 2+ pts
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Johnson, 2+ pts 13¢
Range
5¢-13¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-MN01D-P2
Oct 11, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 22h ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 1st District House election be at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 1st District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-MN01D-P2
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 1st District House election be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Johnson, 2+ pts 13¢
Current share
—
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.