SimpleFunctions

Margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary between 3% and 6%

Ed Case, 3-6% is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 12 inside Will the margin of victory.

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Price history

16¢ current

10¢20¢
Aug 5, 2026Aug 8, 2026

Contract brief

If the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Ed Case, 3-6%

Rank

#3 of 12

Leader

Ed Case, ≥15% 13¢

Range

1¢-13¢

Family volume

$4K

Identifier

KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P4

Aug 8, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

16¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 8, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

15¢

Spread

4¢

24h volume

$76

Family rank

#3 of 12

12 outcomes · Will the margin of victory

Closes

Aug 8, 2027

Family volume

$4K

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 15¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
11¢33
10¢5
9¢66
8¢400
5¢600
AskSize
15¢123
16¢342
18¢33
19¢66
20¢400

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 8, 2027

Identifier

KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P4

SF Signal
SF Index
404.39
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the margin of victory.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$4K

Outcomes

12

Highest price

Ed Case, ≥15% 13¢

Current share

2%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Ed Case, ≥15%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P57

13¢
$515$515—

Ed Case, 0-3%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P1

13¢
$112$112—

Ed Case, 3-6%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P4

11¢
$76$76—

Jarrett Keohokalole, 3-6%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-JKEO-P4

9¢
$705$705—

Jarrett Keohokalole, 0-3%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-JKEO-P1

9¢
$189$189—

Jarrett Keohokalole, 6-9%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-JKEO-P7

7¢
$809$809—

Ed Case, 6-9%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P7

7¢
$0$0—

Ed Case, 9-12%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P10

6¢
$0$0—

Ed Case, 12-15%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P13

5¢
$0$0—

Jarrett Keohokalole, 9-12%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-JKEO-P10

4¢
$702$702—

Jarrett Keohokalole, ≥15%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-JKEO-P57

3¢
$600$6002.3

Jarrett Keohokalole, 12-15%

kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-JKEO-P13

1¢
$0$0—

Browse this series

2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXPRIMARYMOV series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

808.8%

IY (No)

12.4%

Adj IY

404%

CRI

8

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
808.8%
IY (No)
12.4%
Adj IY
404%
CRI
8
Overround
-0.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.