Margin of victory for Jack Schlossberg in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary above 0%
Jack Schlossberg wins is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 13 inside Will the margin of victory.
Price history
3¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Jack Schlossberg in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jack Schlossberg wins
Rank
#11 of 13
Leader
Micah Lasher, 0-2% 14¢
Range
2¢-14¢
Family volume
$86
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-JSCH-P50
Jun 21, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#11 of 13
13 outcomes · Will the margin of victory
Closes
Jun 23, 2027
Family volume
$86
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Jack Schlossberg in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 23, 2027
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-JSCH-P50
Event family
Will the margin of victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$86
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Micah Lasher, 0-2% 14¢
Current share
0%
Micah Lasher, 0-2%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-MLAS-P1
Micah Lasher, ≥10%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-MLAS-P55
Micah Lasher, 8-10%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-MLAS-P9
Alex Bores, 2-4%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-ABOR-P3
Alex Bores, 0-2%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-ABOR-P1
Micah Lasher, 2-4%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-MLAS-P3
Alex Bores, 6-8%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-ABOR-P7
Alex Bores, ≥10%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-ABOR-P55
Alex Bores, 8-10%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-ABOR-P9
Micah Lasher, 4-6%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-MLAS-P5
Jack Schlossberg wins
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-JSCH-P50
Micah Lasher, 6-8%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-MLAS-P7
Alex Bores, 4-6%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-NY12D26-ABOR-P5
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.