Margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election at least 45%
Labour, ≥45% is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 16¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 10 inside Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be.
Price history
17¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 45% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Labour, ≥45%
Rank
#9 of 10
Leader
Labour, ≥5% 92¢
Range
3¢-92¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P72
Jul 25, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
16¢
Reported volume
$90
Family rank
#9 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be
Closes
Jul 30, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 45% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 30, 2027
Identifier
KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P72
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Labour, ≥5% 92¢
Current share
—
Labour, ≥5%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P52
Labour, ≥10%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P55
Labour, ≥15%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P57
Labour, ≥20%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P60
Labour, ≥25%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P62
Labour, ≥30%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P65
Labour, ≥35%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P67
Labour, ≥40%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P70
Labour, ≥45%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P72
Labour, ≥50%
kalshi · KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P75
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 17% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.