Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 20%
Leader sits at 97% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Labour, ≥25%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Labour, ≥30%
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jul 30, 2027
362 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be
Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 30%?: Labour, ≥30%
KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P65
Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 25%?: Labour, ≥25%
KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P62
Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be at least 35%?: Labour, ≥35%
KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P67
Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be at least 40%?: Labour, ≥40%
KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P70
Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be at least 50%?: Labour, ≥50%
KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P75
Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be at least 45%?: Labour, ≥45%
KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P72
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 80% chance that Labour's margin of victory in Greater Manchester's 2026 mayoral election exceeds 20 percentage points. The contract structure reveals declining confidence at higher thresholds: while traders assess a 90% probability of Labour winning by at least 5 points, this drops to 60% for a 20-point margin. Greater Manchester's strong Labour voting history and demographic composition support larger margins, but regional economic conditions, local campaign dynamics, and potential anti-incumbent sentiment could narrow the result. The resolution depends entirely on the final election count in 2026, with no intermediate data releases to update forecasts. Market confidence diminishes substantially beyond 20 points, suggesting traders view landslide-level victories (25+ points) as roughly coin-flip scenarios.
- ›Labour's current structural advantage in Greater Manchester, measured through recent voting patterns and registered voter composition
- ›The steepness of the probability decline across threshold levels (90% at 5-point margin, 50% at 25-point margin) indicates genuine uncertainty about final margin size
- ›Turnout differential between Labour and opposition voters, which historical election data would help forecast but remains variable
- ›Regional economic performance and cost-of-living pressures between now and election day, affecting anti-incumbent momentum
- ›Emergence of competing candidates or effective independent challengers that could split the opposition vote and amplify Labour margins
What moved the line
- Jul 31Labour, ≥25%↑13pp58→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Labour, ≥35%↓11pp29→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Labour, ≥35%↓11pp18→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Labour, ≥30%↑7pp23→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 27Labour, ≥50%↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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