Margin of victory for Republicans in the West Virginia's 1st District House election at least 30 percentage points
Miller, 30+ pts is priced at 66¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 73¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the West Virginia's 1st District House election be at least.
Price history
66¢ current
Contract brief
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in West Virginia's 1st District by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Miller, 30+ pts
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
Miller, 24+ pts 83¢
Range
1¢-83¢
Family volume
$44
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P30
Oct 11, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 22h ago
Implied probability
Bid
64¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$45
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the West Virginia's 1st District House election be at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$44
Orderbook snapshot
64 / 73¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in West Virginia's 1st District by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P30
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the West Virginia's 1st District House election be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$44
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Miller, 24+ pts 83¢
Current share
0%
Miller, 24+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P24
Miller, 27+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P27
Miller, 30+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P30
Miller, 33+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P33
Miller, 36+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P36
Miller, 39+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P39
Miller, 42+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P42
Miller, 45+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P45
Miller, 48+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-WV01R-P48
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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