Max temperature in San Antonio above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026
San Antonio is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 93¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Will the max temperature.
Price history
88¢ current
+39¢Contract brief
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Antonio for Jul 4, 2026, is greater than 75°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
San Antonio
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Austin 93¢
Range
2¢-93¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-SATX
Jun 24, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
93¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$10
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the max temperature
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
93 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Antonio for Jul 4, 2026, is greater than 75°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
Identifier
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-SATX
Event family
Will the max temperature.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Austin 93¢
Current share
1%
Austin
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-AUS
Dallas
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-DAL
San Antonio
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-SATX
Las Vegas
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-LV
Phoenix
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-PHX
New Orleans
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-NOLA
Atlanta
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-ATL
Miami
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-MIA
Houston
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-HOU
New York City
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-NYC
Denver
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-DEN
Philadelphia
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-PHIL
Washington DC
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-DC
Minneapolis
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-MIN
San Francisco
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-SFO
Seattle
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-SEA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.