Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30 is priced at 88¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 87¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
88¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Outcome
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$29K
Identifier
0x4fe48726...ee0d
Aug 24, 2026, 8:07 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
87¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$591
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Family volume
$29K
Orderbook snapshot
87 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Identifier
0x4fe48726…ee0d
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$29K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30 88¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.