SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 above $3.00 in July 2026

Above $3.00 is priced at 97¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $.

Price history

97¢ current

+96¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $3.00

Rank

#1 of 9

Leader

Above $3.00 94¢

Range

2¢-94¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXB200MS-26JUL-3.00

Jun 26, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 27m ago

Implied probability

97¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Jun 26, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 27m ago

Bid

94¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#1 of 9

9 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

94 / 99¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
94¢300
AskSize
99¢50

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3 in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Identifier

KXB200MS-26JUL-3.00

SF Signal
SF Index
7999.01
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

65.2%

IY (No)

15998.0%

Adj IY

7999%

CRI

16

Overround

2.6%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

65.2%
15998.0%
Adj IY
7999%
16
Overround
2.6%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogtech

Prediction Markets Are Building a Yield Curve for AI Compute

B200 GPU rental markets now price AI compute as a tradable curve across Kalshi, Polymarket, Ornn, and cloud spot prices.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.