SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 above $3.50 in January 2027

Above $3.50 is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 95¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 9 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $.

Price history

88¢ current

+1¢
75¢
Aug 21, 2026Sep 19, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $3.50

Rank

#2 of 9

Leader

Above $3.00 93¢

Range

32¢-93¢

Family volume

$200

Identifier

KXB200MS-27JAN-3.50

Sep 21, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

88¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 21, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

95¢

Ask

100¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#2 of 9

9 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Family volume

$200

Orderbook snapshot

95 / 100¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
100¢100
95¢200
2¢116
AskSize

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $3.5 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Identifier

KXB200MS-27JAN-3.50

SF Signal
SF Index
459.19
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

81.9%

IY (No)

918.4%

Adj IY

459%

CRI

3

Overround

4.6%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.568

Observability

high

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

81.9%
918.4%
Adj IY
459%
3
Overround
4.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.