Nasdaq-100 below 22600.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
22,600 or below is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 24¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22.
Price history
27¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 22600.01, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
22,600 or below
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
22,400 or below 25¢
Range
18¢-25¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22600.01
Jun 26, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
24¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 22600.01, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22600.01
Event family
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
22,400 or below 25¢
Current share
—
22,400 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22400.01
22,600 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22600.01
22,800 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22800.01
22,200 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22200.01
22,000 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22000.01
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.