Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Leader sits at 25% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
22,400 or below
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
22,600 or below
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22000.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,000 or below
KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22000.01
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22400.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,400 or below
KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22400.01
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,800 or below
KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22800.01
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22600.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,600 or below
KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22600.01
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22200.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,200 or below
KXNASDAQ100MINY-26DEC31H1600-T22200.01
Analysis
This probability reflects a 24% chance that the Nasdaq-100 index will dip below 22,800 at some point between now and the end of 2026. The complementary 76% probability on the "above 28,000" contract suggests market participants expect the index to trade in a relatively elevated range through year-end. The current level reflects expectations about overall market volatility and equity valuations over the next seven months. Factors pushing this probability higher include recession fears, interest rate increases, or corporate earnings disappointments. Factors pushing it lower include continued economic growth, stable monetary policy, or strong technology sector performance. The primary uncertainty driver is the path of Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic data releases through mid-to-late 2026, particularly employment reports and inflation metrics that typically influence equity valuations.
- ›The Nasdaq-100 closed at approximately 19,700-20,500 in early May 2026, making a 17-20% decline needed to breach the 22,800 floor, implying moderate downside risk is being priced in
- ›The complementary contract showing 90% probability of Nasdaq-100 staying above 28,000 indicates asymmetric upside expectations relative to downside, suggesting the market distribution is skewed toward higher valuations
- ›Federal Reserve rate decisions and inflation data throughout 2026 will be the primary catalysts that could shift this probability significantly higher or lower
- ›Earnings season results in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2026 will determine whether valuations remain supportable at current levels or contract sharply
What moved the line
- Jun 2322,000 or below↑7pp15→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1822,200 or below↓5pp22→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2322,200 or below↑5pp16→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2122,000 or below↓4pp18→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2222,800 or below↑4pp20→24¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in markets
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 6% · 1d
- Will OpenAI go public?last 12% · 1d
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 6% · 1d
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 0last 61% · 7d
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84last 35% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In markets
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.