Nasdaq-100 below 29000 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT
28,999.99 or below is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 30¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will the Nasdaq-100 be.
Price history
30¢ current
+23¢Contract brief
If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on June 26, 2026 is below 29000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
28,999.99 or below
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
28,999.99 or below 24¢
Range
1¢-24¢
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-T29000
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the Nasdaq-100 be
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 32¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on June 26, 2026 is below 29000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-T29000
Event family
Will the Nasdaq-100 be.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
28,999.99 or below 24¢
Current share
33%
28,999.99 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-T29000
29,400 to 29,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29450
29,500 to 29,599.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29550
29,600 to 29,699.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29650
29,700 to 29,799.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29750
29,800 to 29,899.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29850
29,200 to 29,299.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29250
29,100 to 29,199.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29150
29,300 to 29,399.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29350
29,900 to 29,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29950
30,500 to 30,599.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B30550
30,000 to 30,099.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B30050
29,000 to 29,099.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B29050
30,100 to 30,199.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B30150
30,200 to 30,299.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B30250
30,300 to 30,399.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-B30350
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.