Number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 above 25 days
Above 25 days is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above.
Price history
6¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If the the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 is above 25 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 25 days
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Above 15 days 39¢
Range
2¢-39¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T25
Sep 19, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$25K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 is above 25 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T25
Event family
Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Above 15 days 39¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.