Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 20 days
Leader sits at 97% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 12 days
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Above 15 days
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$10K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
105 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above
Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 12 days?: Above 12 days
KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T12
Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 15 days?: Above 15 days
KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T15
Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 25 days?: Above 25 days
KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T25
Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 20 days?: Above 20 days
KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T20
Analysis
This represents whether the PJM power grid will experience 20 or more calendar days in 2026 when a NERC Emergency Alert Level 1 (capacity emergency) is in effect—a sign of severe electricity supply stress. The 36% probability reflects that while grid emergencies have become more frequent due to aging infrastructure and rising demand, reaching 20+ days would be unusually severe. The current reading depends on weather patterns (extreme heat drives demand), generation availability (retirements and maintenance outages), and demand growth across the region. Since we are already at mid-August, the count depends on whether remaining 2026 months—particularly September heat season and potential winter stress—trigger emergency conditions. The final resolution comes on January 1, 2027, when all 2026 calendar days are known.
- ›Heat-driven demand peaks in September-October 2026 will be the primary test; any major heatwaves with simultaneous generation outages increase emergency day counts
- ›Recent generation retirements in PJM (coal plant closures) have tightened the margin between supply and peak demand, raising baseline emergency frequency
- ›Winter 2026-27 represents the second critical window; extreme cold plus forced outages or fuel supply issues could trigger additional emergency alerts
- ›Historical context shows 20+ emergency days in a single year would match or exceed recent multi-year peaks, indicating markets price this as materially above baseline
- ›The threshold climbs from 10 to 15 to 20+ days with declining probability (94% → 63% → 36%), suggesting markets see a concentration of risk in moderate rather than extreme outcomes
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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