Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0
Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0 is priced at 53¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 53¢ bid, 57¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
53¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Democrats win the election for any statewide office in Texas (including U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller of Public Accounts, Commissioner of General Land Office, Commissioner of Agriculture, Railroad Commissioner, any seat on the Texas Supreme Court, any seat on Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, and any other office that is voted on by all counties in Texas) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
KXANYDEMWINTEXAS-26NOV03
Aug 9, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
53¢
Ask
57¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$375
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 2, 2027
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
53 / 57¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Democrats win the election for any statewide office in Texas (including U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller of Public Accounts, Commissioner of General Land Office, Commissioner of Agriculture, Railroad Commissioner, any seat on the Texas Supreme Court, any seat on Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, and any other office that is voted on by all counties in Texas) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 2, 2027
Identifier
KXANYDEMWINTEXAS-26NOV03
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0 53¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.