Exactly 1 · Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly
Exactly 1 is priced at 40¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 38¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly.
Price history
40¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Exactly 1
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Exactly 1 38¢
Range
1¢-38¢
Family volume
$612
Identifier
KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E1
Jun 22, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
38¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$96
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$612
Orderbook snapshot
38 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E1
Event family
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$612
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Exactly 1 38¢
Current share
16%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.512
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 40% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.