Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before July 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave.... This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market is pricing in a 44% probability that all four specific Representatives will depart before July 1, 2026, but the extreme implied yield of 615% on the Yes side signals either very low liquidity ($1,813 open interest) or a sharp mismatch between the price and true odds.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 44% probability that all four specific Representatives will depart before July 1, 2026, but the extreme implied yield of 615% on the Yes side signals either very low liquidity ($1,813 open interest) or a sharp mismatch between the price and true odds. The 425% realized volatility and 1.82 vol ratio indicate this contract has experienced significant price swings, suggesting either new information about departures or thin-market dynamics driving the outsized yield figures rather than genuine conviction in the outcome.
Resolution rules
If all four of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the U.S. House of Representatives (based on actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE) before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B260701 yes 100