Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave.... This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing a 62% probability that all four named Representatives leave the House by November 2026, with a notably asymmetric risk profile where the "No" side offers 296.8% implied yield versus 111.5% for "Yes," suggesting the market may undervalue the difficulty of all four departing simultaneously.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 62% probability that all four named Representatives leave the House by November 2026, with a notably asymmetric risk profile where the "No" side offers 296.8% implied yield versus 111.5% for "Yes," suggesting the market may undervalue the difficulty of all four departing simultaneously. The 7-day price movement from 51¢ to 62¢ indicates recent bullish sentiment, though thin liquidity ($54 24h volume, $2,409 open interest) and a tight 1¢ spread suggest limited conviction and potential for slippage on larger positions.
Resolution rules
If all four of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the U.S. House of Representatives (based on actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE) before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B261103 yes 100