Number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections
At least 15 is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 84¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 13 inside Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least.
Price history
87¢ current
Contract brief
If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 15
Rank
#6 of 13
Leader
At least 12 95¢
Range
3¢-95¢
Family volume
$16K
Identifier
KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL15
Sep 23, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
84¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#6 of 13
13 outcomes · Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$16K
Orderbook snapshot
84 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL15
Event family
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$16K
Outcomes
13
Highest price
At least 12 95¢
Current share
20%
At least 12
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL12
At least 10
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL10
At least 11
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL11
At least 13
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL13
At least 14
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL14
At least 15
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL15
At least 16
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL16
At least 17
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL17
At least 18
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL18
At least 19
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL19
At least 20
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL20
At least 21
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL21
At least 22
kalshi · KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03-AL22
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
Read 87% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.