SimpleFunctions

NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31

Above $4.00 is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $.

Price history

96¢ current

+36¢
75¢100¢
Jun 24, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If the value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 on Jul 31, 2026 at 4 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $4.00

Rank

#3 of 9

Leader

Above $3.00 98¢

Range

30¢-98¢

Family volume

$88

Identifier

KXB200WS-26JUL31-4.000

Jul 12, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 19m ago

Implied probability

96¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 19m ago

Bid

96¢

Ask

97¢

Spread

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#3 of 9

9 outcomes · Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $

Closes

Jul 31, 2026

Family volume

$88

Orderbook snapshot

96 / 97¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.0K
96¢4
95¢185
80¢100
2¢43
AskSize
97¢179
99¢8.2K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 on Jul 31, 2026 at 4 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 31, 2026

Identifier

KXB200WS-26JUL31-4.000

SF Signal
SF Index
22160.38
Regime
taker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

76.9%

IY (No)

44320.8%

Adj IY

22160%

CRI

24

Overround

3.7%

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

76.9%
44320.8%
Adj IY
22160%
24
Overround
3.7%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogtech

Prediction Markets Are Building a Yield Curve for AI Compute

B200 GPU rental markets now price AI compute as a tradable curve across Kalshi, Polymarket, Ornn, and cloud spot prices.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.