SimpleFunctions

NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price above $4 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04

Above $4.00 is priced at 95¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 91¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 13 inside Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $.

Price history

95¢ current

+20¢
80¢90¢
Jul 24, 2026Jul 25, 2026

Contract brief

If the value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 on Sep 04, 2026 at 4 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $4.00

Rank

#3 of 13

Leader

Above $3.50 93¢

Range

6¢-93¢

Family volume

$305

Identifier

KXB200WS-26SEP04-4.000

Jul 25, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 3m ago

Implied probability

95¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Jul 25, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 3m ago

Bid

91¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#3 of 13

13 outcomes · Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $

Closes

Sep 4, 2026

Family volume

$305

Orderbook snapshot

91 / 99¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
91¢100
74¢10
AskSize
99¢160

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 on Sep 04, 2026 at 4 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 4, 2026

Identifier

KXB200WS-26SEP04-4.000

SF Signal
SF Index
4062.36
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

87.1%

IY (No)

8907.7%

Adj IY

4062%

CRI

10

Overround

6.4%

LAS

0.09

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

87.1%
8907.7%
Adj IY
4062%
10
Overround
6.4%
LAS
0.09

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogtech

Prediction Markets Are Building a Yield Curve for AI Compute

B200 GPU rental markets now price AI compute as a tradable curve across Kalshi, Polymarket, Ornn, and cloud spot prices.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.