Players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 1 500+ foot home run
1+ HRs is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least.
Price history
34¢ current
+31¢Contract brief
If the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 1 500+ foot home run at the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
1+ HRs
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
1+ HRs 33¢
Range
2¢-33¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-1
Jul 12, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least
Closes
Jul 21, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 1 500+ foot home run at the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 21, 2026
Identifier
KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-1
Event family
Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
1+ HRs 33¢
Current share
24%
1+ HRs
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-1
2+ HRs
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-2
3+ HRs
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-3
4+ HRs
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-4
5+ HRs
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-5
6+ HRs
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-6
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.