Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 2 500+ foot home runs
Leader sits at 34% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1+ HRs
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
2+ HRs
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least
Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 3 500+ foot home runs?: 3+ HRs
KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-3
Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 2 500+ foot home runs?: 2+ HRs
KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-2
Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 1 500+ foot home run?: 1+ HRs
KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-1
Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 4 500+ foot home runs?: 4+ HRs
KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-4
Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 5 500+ foot home runs?: 5+ HRs
KXMLBHRDERBY500-26-5
Analysis
This market assesses whether MLB Home Run Derby participants will hit at least two balls 500+ feet during the 2026 event. At 38%, it suggests the outcome is somewhat unlikely but not remote. The probability reflects historical data on ultra-distance home runs in derby conditions—500+ foot homers are exceptionally rare even among elite power hitters swinging in a competition designed to maximize distance. Factors driving this level include the quality of participating hitters, ballpark dimensions, and weather conditions on event day. The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, scheduled for mid-July, will provide the definitive measurement. Current pricing shows higher confidence in at least one 500+ footer occurring (30¢) versus two or more (11¢), suggesting markets view incremental distance thresholds as increasingly difficult to clear. The gap between these contracts indicates meaningful uncertainty about extreme power output sustainability across multiple swings.
- ›Historical frequency: 500+ foot home runs in recent MLB Home Run Derbies occur in single digits or not at all, establishing a baseline for rarity
- ›Participant pool composition: The specific hitters selected for 2026 will determine average exit velocity and power ceiling; elite sluggers increase probability substantially
- ›Ballpark choice impact: Venue selection affects both baseline distance and whether atmospheric/dimensional factors favor extreme distance outcomes
- ›Measurement standards: Official Statcast or equivalent tracking technology must verify and classify each homer, introducing potential definitional variance
- ›Recent trend data: 2024-2025 derby results and aggregate exit velocities among current MLB power leaders provide the most recent comparable sample
What moved the line
- Jul 111+ HRs↑8pp29→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 112+ HRs↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 115+ HRs↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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