Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 56¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 82¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before.
Price history
56¢ current
+54¢Contract brief
If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 14¢
Range
3¢-14¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCANADAUSTARIFFLOWER-27-27JAN01
Sep 21, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
82¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXCANADAUSTARIFFLOWER-27-27JAN01
Event family
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 14¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.