Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 62% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
106 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXCANADAUSTARIFFLOWER-27-26DEC01
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXCANADAUSTARIFFLOWER-27-27JAN01
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXCANADAUSTARIFFLOWER-27-26OCT01
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXCANADAUSTARIFFLOWER-27-26NOV01
Analysis
This market reflects a 6% probability that Canada's Prime Minister will publicly announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods between now and January 1, 2027. The low odds suggest traders believe a tariff reduction is unlikely in the next four months, possibly because recent Canadian-U.S. trade tensions have pushed in the opposite direction, or because any policy shift would require political consensus that hasn't yet materialized. The main drivers moving this probability would be: (1) a major trade negotiation breakthrough or formal U.S.-Canada agreement, or (2) significant economic pressure forcing a strategic reversal. The most consequential near-term dates are the November and December 2026 deadlines shown in shorter-dated contracts, which would likely trigger resolution if announcements occur. Any formal trade deal announcement, ministerial statement on tariff policy, or budget/economic update touching on U.S. trade could serve as a catalyst.
- ›Current tariff stance: Whether Canada has actively raised or maintained tariffs on U.S. goods recently, making a reversal less politically feasible
- ›Trade negotiation timeline: Ongoing or scheduled U.S.-Canada bilateral trade talks that could conclude with tariff concessions before year-end
- ›Domestic political constraints: Whether the sitting government faces parliamentary or electoral pressure that makes tariff reductions politically costly
- ›Economic indicators: Trade deficit, import/export volumes, or retaliatory tariff threats that might force policy recalibration
- ›Historical precedent: Whether Canadian PMs typically announce tariff changes through public statements versus quieter implementation
What moved the line
- Sep 10Before Jan 1, 2027↑37pp19→56¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Before Dec 1, 2026↑29pp16→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Before Nov 1, 2026↑20pp14→34¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9Before Jan 1, 2027↑17pp2→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9Before Dec 1, 2026↑14pp2→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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