Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa: Republican party · GOVPARTYIA-26
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa: Republican party is priced at 39¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 34¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside GOVPARTYIA-26.
Price history
39¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Iowa pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa: Republican party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa: Democratic party 62¢
Range
34¢-62¢
Family volume
$555
Identifier
GOVPARTYIA-26-R
May 28, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$547
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · GOVPARTYIA-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$555
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Iowa pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYIA-26-R
Event family
GOVPARTYIA-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$555
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa: Democratic party 62¢
Current share
99%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.