Will the Republican party win the governorship in Maryland: Republican party · GOVPARTYMD-26
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Maryland: Republican party is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside GOVPARTYMD-26.
Price history
7¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Maryland pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Maryland: Republican party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maryland: Democratic party 91¢
Range
3¢-91¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
GOVPARTYMD-26-R
Jun 25, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · GOVPARTYMD-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Maryland pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYMD-26-R
Event family
GOVPARTYMD-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maryland: Democratic party 91¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.