S&P 500 above 8000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
8,000 or above is priced at 42¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 22¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside Will the S&P 500 be above.
Price history
42¢ current
+37¢Contract brief
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 8000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
8,000 or above
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
6,900 or above 77¢
Range
7¢-77¢
Family volume
$5
Identifier
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8000
Jun 25, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
22¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the S&P 500 be above
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$5
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 8000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8000
Event family
Will the S&P 500 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5
Outcomes
16
Highest price
6,900 or above 77¢
Current share
50%
6,900 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T6900
7,400 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7400
7,000 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7000
7,100 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7100
7,200 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7200
7,300 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7300
7,500 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7500
7,600 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7600
7,700 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7700
7,800 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7800
7,900 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7900
8,000 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8000
8,100 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8100
8,200 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8200
8,400 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8400
8,300 or above
kalshi · KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8300
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.