Will the S&P 500 be above 8500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Leader sits at 80% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
6,900 or above
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
7,100 or above
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$75
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
144 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the S&P 500 be above
Will the S&P 500 be above 8400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,400 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8400
Will the S&P 500 be above 8300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,300 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8300
Will the S&P 500 be above 7900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,900 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7900
Will the S&P 500 be above 8500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,500 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8500
Will the S&P 500 be above 8200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,200 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8200
Will the S&P 500 be above 8100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,100 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8100
Will the S&P 500 be above 8000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,000 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8000
Will the S&P 500 be above 7800 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,800 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7800
Will the S&P 500 be above 7700 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,700 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7700
Will the S&P 500 be above 7600 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,600 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7600
Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,500 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7500
Will the S&P 500 be above 7400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,400 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7400
Will the S&P 500 be above 7300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,300 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7300
Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,200 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7200
Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,100 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7100
Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,000 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7000
Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,900 or above
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T6900
Analysis
This market prices an 82% chance the S&P 500 closes above 8,500 by year-end 2026, representing traders' assessment that the index will gain roughly 8-10% from current levels over seven months. The probability reflects expectations about near-term economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and corporate earnings through Q4 2026. An 82% confidence level suggests meaningful upside is priced in, but also leaves 18% probability for a significant pullback. Key drivers include inflation trajectory and Fed rate decisions through the fall, third-quarter earnings reports (July-August), and geopolitical or economic shocks. The most consequential data point will be how the Fed responds to inflation readings and labor market conditions over the summer, which will shape both policy expectations and equity valuations heading into the final quarter.
- ›Current S&P 500 level is approximately 5,400-5,500 (as of May 2026), requiring ~55% total appreciation to reach 8,500 by December 31
- ›Kalshi's related contracts show near-identical pricing (~39¢) across tiers from 7,400 to 7,900, suggesting limited contract liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads may distort the 82% headline figure
- ›The 82% price comes from a single leading contract; the runner-up stands at 78%, indicating disagreement among market participants on the exact outcome boundary
- ›Historical Fed policy cycles and earnings growth rates would need to support sustained equity gains without major recession or systemic shock between June and December 2026
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in lower-strike contracts (7,600: $192 24h volume) while upper strikes show minimal activity ($24-42 24h), suggesting lower price discovery for the 8,500 level
What moved the line
- Aug 57,700 or above↑14pp37→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 57,900 or above↑13pp28→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 57,500 or above↑9pp50→59¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 57,600 or above↑9pp46→55¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 57,800 or above↑9pp36→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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