Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Daniel Grand in Grand v. City of University Heights: Before Aug 1, 2028 · KXSCOTUSCASE-GRACIT28
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Daniel Grand in Grand v. City of University Heights: Before Aug 1, 2028 is priced at 85¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
85¢ current
Contract brief
If the Supreme Court, in Grand v. City of University Heights, rules the land-use finality requirement does not displace a First Amendment chilling-effect claim based on credible government threats that deter religious exercise, worship, or assembly, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Daniel Grand in Grand v. City of University Heights: Before Aug 1, 2028
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-GRACIT28
Sep 10, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
85¢
Ask
91¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$821
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 91¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Supreme Court, in Grand v. City of University Heights, rules the land-use finality requirement does not displace a First Amendment chilling-effect claim based on credible government threats that deter religious exercise, worship, or assembly, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-GRACIT28
Event family
KXSCOTUSCASE-GRACIT28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Daniel Grand in Grand v. City of University Heights: Before Aug 1, 2028 85¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 85% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.