Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota
Leader sits at 86% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Aug 1, 2028
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Before Aug 1, 2028
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
738 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor
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Analysis
This prediction reflects market participants' assessment that the Supreme Court is likely to rule in favor of the Republican National Committee in their legal challenge against Mi Familia Vota, currently priced at 86% likelihood. The high probability suggests strong confidence in the RNC's position, though the runner-up outcome at 76% indicates meaningful uncertainty remains. The probability is likely influenced by the composition and recent ideological alignment of the current Supreme Court, as well as the specific legal merits and standing arguments presented in the case. Resolution depends on the Court's formal decision, which typically comes months after oral arguments. Market participants would adjust this estimate based on oral argument quality, any opinions from lower courts in related cases, or public statements from justices that signal judicial thinking on the underlying legal issues.
- ›Current Supreme Court ideological composition favors outcomes aligned with RNC positions
- ›Specific nature of RNC's legal claims and whether justices grant standing to hear the case
- ›Quality and reception of oral arguments and briefs in this particular dispute
- ›Precedent from related voting rights and organizational standing cases decided in recent years
- ›Timeline to decision unclear—resolution date is not specified, creating extended uncertainty period
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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